Encuesta Zogby International: Leonel 53.7 % ; Miguel 34.1% y Amable 4.8 %

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Released: May 13, 2008

Poll: Dominican Republic President Fernandez Holds Strong Lead Over Rivals

El Panorama Diario/Zogby Poll shows 55% give Fernandez negative job approval marks; 52% believe the country is headed in the right direction

UTICA, New York - Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernandez enjoys majority support with a 20-point lead over his closest rival just ahead of the country's presidential election May 16, a new El Panorama Diario/Zogby poll shows.

Fernandez, of the Dominican Liberation Party, wins 54% support from Dominican Republic likely voters, compared to 34% for Miguel Vargas Maldonado of the Dominican Revolutionary Party, while former Sen. Amable Aristy Castro of the Social Christian Reformist Party earned just 5% support. Fernandez, who is running for a second term, has increased his lead slightly from an El Panorama Diario/Zogby survey in February, when he won 49% support, compared to 30% for Maldonado and 8% for Castro.

	May 2008	Feb. 2008
Leonel Fernandez	54%	49%
Miguel Vargas Maldonado	34%	30%
Amable Aristy Castro	5%	8%
Eduardo Estrella	1%	1%
Pedro Candelier	1%	1%
Guillermo Moreno	1%	<1%
Other	5%	<1%
Not sure	--	11%

The face-to-face survey of 1,210 likely voters in the Dominican Republic was conducted May 5-11, 2008, and carries a margin of error +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Slightly more than half of likely voters (52%) believe the Dominican Republic is headed in the right direction, while 39% believe the country is on the wrong track. Most (55%) give Fernandez a negative job approval rating, while 45% have a positive view of his job performance. More than half of likely voters (57%) say Fernandez deserves to be re-elected, compared to 41% who believe it is time for someone new.

While 62% believe the presidential election will be decided in the first round of voting, 30% believe the election will go to a run-off.

About Zogby International

Zogby International is a public opinion, research, and business solutions firm with experience working in Latin America and more than 70 countries around the globe. Founded and led by John Zogby since 1984, Zogby International ranks as one of the industry's leaders thanks to its reputation for superior accuracy and reliability. Zogby specializes in telephone, Internet, and face-to-face survey research and analysis for political, corporate, non-profit, and governmental clients. The firm is headquartered in Utica, New York, with offices in Washington D.C., Miami, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1308

(5/13/2008)

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http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1503

Esta es la versión en español del Nuevo Diario:

6:54 PM -

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Santo Domingo, mayo 13.- El Presidente de República Dominicana, Leonel Fernández, quien postula a su segundo mandato consecutivo en las elecciones del próximo viernes 16 de mayo, ganaría cómodamente en la primera vuelta de esos comicios, de acuerdo al sondeo más reciente realizado por la reconocida encuestadora Zogby Internacional.

Los resultados de la encuesta de intención de voto, finalizada el 11 de mayo y realizada, en todo el país, entre 1,210 personas con derecho a sufragar y con un margen de error de mas menos 2.9 por ciento, indicaron que el 53.7 por ciento de los dominicanos favorece a Fernández, apoyado principalmente por su Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD).
En comparación, su más cercano contendor, Miguel Vargas Maldonado, abanderado del Partido Revolucionario Dominicano (PRD), obtuvo el 34.1 por ciento de las preferencias de los entrevistados y Amable Aristy Castro, del Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC), consiguió un lejano 4.8 por ciento.

La encuesta de Zogby, que desde 1984 ha realizado sondeos en diversos procesos electorales en Estados Unidos, Europa, Medio Oriente, Asia y América Latina, indicó asimismo que 2.7 por ciento de los consultados reparte sus preferencias entre los demás candidatos.

El sondeo de Zogby, que desde hace meses viene pronosticando acertadamente la ventaja de Barack Obama sobre Hillary Clinton en la carrera presidencial estadounidense, mostró además que el nivel de indecisión de los dominicanos con derecho a voto es apenas de 4.7 por ciento.

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